2024 NBA picks, Jan. 15 best bets by proven model

Gregg Popovich, Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs take on Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on MLK Day. The Spurs are aiming to improve on a 7-31 record, while the Hawks look to bounce back from four losses in the last five games and a 15-23 record overall. Zach Collins and Sidy Cissoko are out for San Antonio, with Doug McDermott listed as questionable. De’Andre Hunter (knee), Mouhamed Gueye (back), Vit Krejci (shoulder) and Wesley Matthews (calf) are out for Atlanta.

SportsLine consensus lists Atlanta as the 8.5-point favorite for this 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 246.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Spurs picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 42-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

Now, the model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Spurs:

Spurs vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -8.5
Spurs vs. Hawks over/under: 246.5 points
Spurs vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -336, Spurs +267
San Antonio: The Spurs are 9-10 against the spread in road games
Atlanta: The Hawks are 3-14 against the spread in home games
Spurs vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Spurs can cover
The Spurs are catching the Hawks at the best possible time. Atlanta has disappointed greatly on the whole this season, but the Hawks have struggled badly in recent days. Atlanta is 3-8 in the last 11 games, with opponents out-scoring the Hawks by 8.6 points per 100 possessions in those contests. The Hawks also suffered back-to-back home losses on Friday and Saturday, losing by 23 points per game. San Antonio’s offense ranks in the top five in the NBA in assists, and the Spurs are facing a porous Hawks defense that is capable of yielding friendly results.

Atlanta is in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive efficiency this season, giving up 120.4 points per 100 possessions. That jumps to 124.2 points per 100 possessions in January, and Atlanta is dead-last in the league in opponent field goal percentage (50.5%). The Hawks are also in the bottom three of the league in 2-point percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, assists allowed, fast break points allowed and second-chance points allowed, with opponents also generating more than 56 points in the paint per game. See which team to pick here.

Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta has not been dominant at home this season, but the Hawks have the advantage against a Spurs team that has an ugly -11.5 net rating on the road. The Hawks also have the superior offense on paper, scoring almost 1.18 points per possession. Atlanta is in the top six of the NBA in free throw creation (25.3 attempts per game), free throw accuracy (81.3%), and offensive rebound rate (32.1%), with the Hawks also scoring 15.8 second-chance points per game.

The Spurs struggle to score on a consistent basis, putting up only 1.09 points per possession. That places San Antonio in the bottom three of the NBA in offensive efficiency, and the Spurs struggle in both shooting efficiency and offensive rebounding. San Antonio is shooting only 45.8% from the field and 34.8% from 3-point range this season, with the Spurs then grabbing only 25.9% of available offensive rebounds. The Hawks are forcing 14.8 turnovers per game on defense, including 8.2 steals per game to rank in the top five of the NBA. See which team to pick here.

How to make Hawks vs. Spurs picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 242 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

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